The UK political scene: recent by-election results

Posted by Tim Congdon in News Archive | 0 comments

The following note sets out the results of UK by-elections from the start of 2012, a period in which a (predictable) swing to the main opposition party, Labour, and an (unpredictable) swing to a less-than-20-year-old one-issue party, the UK Independence Party, have occurred.

Averaging all the by-elections and excluding the March 2012 Bradford West by-election, the swings are of about 10% from both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, and of about 10% to both Labour and UKIP.

If the Bradford West result is included, the swing to Labour is reduced substantially, to about 5%. The explanation is the large swing to Respect, a breakaway political force under Mr. George Galloway

By-elections since the start of 2012

% share of vote % change in vote compared with

2010 General Election

 

Eastleigh (February 2013) Liberal Democrat

 

 

32.1

 

 

-14.5

UKIP 27.8 24.2
Conservative 25.4 -14
Labour 9.8 0.2
Others 4.9
Croydon North (November 2

Labour

012

64.7

 

8.7

Conservative 16.8 -7.3
UKIP 5.7 4
Liberal Democrat 3.5 -10.5
Others 9.3
Middlesbrough (November 2012

Labour

 

60.5

 

14.6

UKIP 11.8 8.1
Liberal Democrat 9.9 -10
Conservative 6.3 -12.5
Others 11.5
Rotherham (November 2012)

Labour

 

46.5

 

1.8

UKIP 21.7 15.8
BNP 8.4 -2
Conservative 5.4 -11.4
Liberal Democrat 2.1 -13.9
Others 15.9
Cardiff South and Penarth (November 2012)

Labour

 

47.3

 

8.4

Conservative 19.9 -8.4
Liberal Democrat 10.8 -11.5
UKIP 6.1 3.5
Others 15.9
Corby (November 2012)

Labour

 

48.4

 

9.8

Conservative 26.6 -15.6
UKIP 14.3 14.3
Liberal Democrat 5 -9.5
Others 5.7

 

Manchester Central (November 2012)

Labour 69.1 16.4
Liberal Democrat 9.4 -17.2
Conservative 4.5 -7.3
UKIP 4.5 3
Others 12.5

 

Bradford West (March 2012)

Respect 55.9 52.8
Labour 25 -20.3
Conservative 8.4 -22.7
Liberal Democrat 4.6 -7.1
UKIP 3.3 1.3
Others 2.8

130301 Table1

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